Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances
Washington DC: The National Academies Press, 2005. Presumed First Edition, First printing. Wraps. xvi, 122 pages. Illustrations (Figures, Tables, Boxes, and Charts). Acronyms. Footnotes. References. Cover has slight wear and soiling. The global spread of expertise in science and technology and commercial access to advanced technologies with possible military applications could undermine the technological superiority on which U.S. military strength is based. To address this possibility, the U.S. intelligence community must provide adequate, effective warnings of the evolution of critical technologies. The Technology Warning Division of the Defense Intelligence Agency asked the National Academies to undertake a study of technology warning issues. This report, the first part of that study, provides an assessment of critical, evolving technologies; postulates ways potential adversaries could disrupt their development; and identifies warning signs that disruptive methods are under development. The intention of this report is to establish the foundation for a long-term relationship between the National Academies and the technology warning community to support ongoing studies of technology warning issues. More