The Future of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Their Nature and Role in 2030; Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction Occasional Paper 10
Washington DC: National Defense University Press, 2012. Revised and Updated, First printing thus. Wraps. [4], 64 pages. Notes. The longstanding efforts of the international community writ large to exclude weapons of mass destruction (WMD) from international competition and conflict could be undermined in 2030. The proliferation of these weapons is likely to be harder to prevent and thus potentially more prevalent. Nuclear weapons are likely to play a more significant role in the international security environment, and current constraints on the proliferation and use of chemical and biological weapons could diminish. There will be greater scope for WMD terrorism, though it is not possible to predict the frequency or severity of any future employment of WMD. New forms of WMD—beyond chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons—are unlikely to emerge by 2030, but cyber weapons will probably be capable of inflicting such widespread disruption that the United States may become as reliant on the threat to impose unacceptable costs to deter large-scale cyber attack as it currently is to deter the use of WMD. The definition of weapons of mass destruction will remain uncertain and controversial in 2030, and its value as an analytic category will be increasingly open to question. These conclusions about the future of WMD derive from judgments about relevant technological and geopolitical developments out to 2030. Technological developments will shape what WMD capabilities will be achievable in that timeframe while geopolitical developments will shape motivations to acquire and use WMD. The Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction is at the forefront of education and research on the impact of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) on U.S. and global security. The Center was established in 1994 as the Center for Counterproliferation Research at the request of then Assistant Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter as an outgrowth of the Defense Counterproliferation Initiative. Ambassador Robert Joseph, who later served as a Special Assistant to the President on the National Security Council staff and as an Under Secretary of State under President George W. Bush, served as the Center’s first Director. In 2001, Dr. John Reichart succeeded Ambassador Joseph as Director, and the Center expanded its research from WMD challenges to the military to encompass a full spectrum of WMD issues affecting a broad set of U.S. government departments and agencies. In 2004, the Center for Counterproliferation Research changed its name to the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction to reflect this change in mission. In 2008, pursuant to the Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff Instruction 1801.01C, the Center became the focal point for WMD education in Joint Professional Military Education. In 2015, Mr. Charles Lutes succeeded Dr. Reichart as Director, following Dr. Reichart’s retirement after more than forty years of government service. Throughout its history, the Center has maintained a broad mandate for education, research, and outreach, and has pursued ambitious initiatives in these areas. Its research contributes to the understanding of the security implications of WMD, as well as to the challenge of fashioning effective responses. The Center is actively engaged on pressing and emerging WMD issues, such as interdiction, elimination, consequence management, deterrence, and escalation management. It also examines responses to new and evolving WMD threats, including nuclear terrorism, bioterrorism and nontraditional agents, and assists combatant commands in preparing to deal with the operational impact of chemical and biological weapons. Through its education, research, and outreach programs, the Center seeks to enhance awareness in the next generation of military and civilian leaders of the WMD threat. In addition to the Center’s courses on countering WMD and consequence management at National Defense University, staff members also lecture on WMD issues widely and across the academic and operational spectrum. The Center is building a cadre of future leaders knowledgeable about WMD through its innovative Program for Emerging Leaders. It also administers a unique Master of Science in WMD Studies program for DoD personnel in conjunction with Missouri State University. The Center further hosts an annual symposium and monthly WMD Spotlight Seminars to address topical WMD issues, as well as other conferences, workshops, and seminars throughout the year. Condition: Very good.
Keywords: WMD, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Geopolitical Trends, Forecasting, Furturism, Technological Trends, Deterrence, Terrorism, Proliferation, Radiological Weapons, Cyber Weapons, Disruptive Technology
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