Nuclear Winter: Implications for Civil Defense; ORNL-6399
Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1988. Presumed First Edition, First printing thus. Wraps. xvm [1], 152, [4] pages. Executive Summary. Figures. Tables. Recommendations. References. Appendices. Cover has some wear and soling. Bottom edge shows some moisture staining and page rippling. All pages separate and no impact to text. This was prepared for the Federal Emergency Management Agency. In 1983, a study was published on the climatological effects of injection into the atmosphere of hundreds of million of tons of smoke and dust by a large nuclear war. This study, entitled "Nuclear Winter: Global Consequences of Multiple Nuclear Explosions" (nicknamed TTAPS from the initials of its authors; Turco, Toon, Ackerman, Pollack, and Sagan), predicted temperature depressions of 40 to 60° for some plausible values of the input parameters. Some cited these results as proof that nuclear war is not survivable and, hence, that civil defense is unfeasible. A lively debate and vigorous research program followed with participation by atmospheric scientists and climatologists from several large U.S. laboratories. A consensus on nuclear winter seems to be emerging. It is generally believed possible, for some range of heavy attacks directed against cities, that significant but not lethal climate alteration will ensue for at least a few weeks. "Nuclear Winter" is the term given to the cooling hypothesized to occur in the Northern Hemisphere following a nuclear war as the result of the injection of smoke from burning cities into the atmosphere. The voluminous literature on this subject produced since the paper was published in 1983 by Turco, Toon, Ackerman, Pollack, and Sagen (TTAPS) has been reviewed. Three-dimensional global circulation models have resulted in reduced estimates of cooling--15 to 25 deg. C. for a summer war and a few degrees for a winter war. More serious may be the possibility of suppression of convective precipitation by the altered temperature profiles in the atmosphere. However, very large uncertainties remain in input parameters, the models, and the results of calculations. We believe the state of knowledge about nuclear winter is sufficiently developed to conclude o Neither cold nor drought is likely to be a direct threat to human survival for populations with the wherewithal to survive normal January temperatures; o The principal threat from nuclear winter is to food production, and this could
present problems to third parties who are without food reserves; o Loss of a crop year is neither a new nor an unexpected threat from nuclear war to the United States and the Soviet Union. Both have at least a year's food reserve at all times. Both face formidable organizational problems in distributing their reserves in a war-damaged environment. The consequences of nuclear winter could be expected to fall more heavily on tire Soviet Union than the United States due to its higher latitude and less productive agriculture. This may be especially true if disturbances of rainfall amounts and distribution persist for more than a year. There are still very large uncertainties in the climatological consequences of nuclear war. Some of these are due to the limits on resolution of the models used. There is insufficient information on the production and optical properties of smoke from combustion of urban environments. Condition: Fair.
Keywords: Nuclear Winter, Climate Effects, Hydrologic Effects, Civil Defense, Nuclear War, Urban Fires, Food Reserves, See Production, Smoke Loadings, Vulnerability Assessment
[Book #84176]
Price: $150.00